According to my numbers which are closely related to yours (
audriesaircraftanalysis comparison), becuase of such a large pool of candidates here in the United States (22,000 Regional Pilots). At the peak years in the decade of the 2020's we will see anywhere from 10-15% draw from the Regionals. Regional FO's during that period can still expect time in the right seat of up to 5 years.
Some refer to some unkown factors like, ATP requirements, and the new Fatigue rules. But the fact remains there impact is
unknown.
We might see a shortage in the late 2020's
IF GDP grows at a good rate, however with our current economic outlook in the States, I wouldn't bet alot of money on a high GDP growth rate.
I kind of cringe when I hear business people use the word "Shortage" of employees, because its not a lack of people who can become qualified its a lack of people who are willing to work for the amount of pay and working conditions offered. Currently their is no lack of people willing to do this Job for very little.