Originally Posted by
Aero1900
I think that UAVs have served a very real and very helpful function in the military.
They are cheaper, more efficient, and in a lot of way more capable than manned fighter jets.
But they do not perform the "fighter jet" mission, they do another set of missions (recon, surv, CAS, strike). There are no UAVs capable of doing the "fighter jet" mission (yet).
They are also really not cheaper to operate, as their long endurance means multiple shifts of operators. One UAV provides more mission time than one manned aircraft, but it costs more too. They are in some cases cheaper to buy (but the global hawk was so expensive, it got cancelled).
Originally Posted by
Aero1900
They have the ability to say aloft for very long periods of time. (I am pretty sure some can stay up for around 24 hours)
This is their primary advantage over manned aircraft.
Originally Posted by
Aero1900
I do not know the safety record thus far, although with the ever expanding use of them, it must be good enough for the military.
The military has lost about 50% of the predator fleet to non-combat accidents, mostly within the last ten years when their use really ramped up (there have also been a couple shot down). That may have been good enough for the military since they had a lot of money to fight the various wars, but I suspect that might fall short of the mark for passenger airlines.
Originally Posted by
Aero1900
However, I do not see the benefits of UAVs in the military benefiting civilian air transportation.
This is what a lot of people miss.
Originally Posted by
Aero1900
Now, if FedEx or UPS wanted to fly a drone cargo plane, it might be a little more reasonable.
This is far more likely, even probable late in the century.
Originally Posted by
Aero1900
I am not worried that our airline pilot careers are in danger because of UAVs. My concern would be that eventually there could be a push to single pilot airliners. I don't think this will happen, and if it does, it is still a very long way off. Airbus and Boeing have plans to keep building jets with two crew flight decks for at least the next 20 years. Heck, I believe Boeing has orders for 737-MAX that run into the early 2020s, and the A320NEO must have an equally long backlog. If we are going to see single pilot airliners, it won't be for at least 25 years at the minimum and even that seems like a real stretch.
There are usually about a dozen airline pilot incapacitation events each year. Cut the crew in half and that would be six events...each of which would result in a total hull loss with today's airplanes. So basically you would need a totally automated airliner just to go single pilot.
This illustrates the chicken/egg problem with unmanned airliners. An unmanned airliner would require new certifications standards, involving massive redundancy in every aspect of the aircraft and it's operations The manufacturers are not going to spend hundreds of billions on an airplane they can't sell. The airliners can't operate such airplanes unless the regulatory infrastructure, ATC systems, and ground handling systems are in place. The government doesn't really have an incentive to take on all of that...NextGen ATC barely scratches the surface of what you would need for airliner automation and look at what a total catastrophe THAT implemenation has been
And this totally ignores the security issue. Major airline management figures have talked of automated airliners with a backup pilot whose primary duty is flight attendant. But how does he get into the cockpit in an emergency? Does the autopilot determine if he's under duress? Dave...what are you doing...Dave?
Originally Posted by
Aero1900
I think that with the phase out of FE, there could eventually be the possibility of a push to phase out the FO as well. That sure would take care of the looming pilot shortage, huh!?!
Getting rid of the FE was easy once they automated his job. But that still left a primary and backup pilot in the flight deck. Getting rid of the backup (FO) is where things get exponentially more difficult (and costly)