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Old 12-01-2012, 05:49 PM
  #6  
rickair7777
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Oh, I agree it will happen, just not any time soon. Technology is mostly up to the task right now, it's just a matter of cost and regulatory/industry inertia.

Where tech is still lacking is the judgement to respond to complex and unanticipated situations...this is amplified by a factor of ten in the military application where somebody has to make a kill decision (and I do mean KILL) in a dynamic situation with possibly incomplete data. Airliners are easier, they don't have to accomplish a mission, just go from A to B. But I have yet to see an autopilot that can interpret radar returns from a heavy storm system, talk to ATC to get a feel for what THEY are seeing, and make a sound decision. We have all the other technology (redundancy costs extra though...LOTS extra) but we don't have the artificial intelligence yet. Automated airliners would have to make a lot of diversion out of an abundance of caution (and stupidity).

Once the technology becomes MUCH, MUCH, MUCH more reliable at a reasonable price, then all you have to do is wait for SOMEONE to make the huge investments necessary to get the whole system up and running. Airline managers will squeal like pigs when the time comes, but they won't actually invest any of THEIR money is a project which won't bear fruit for 20+ years...they are only interest in next quarter's stock prices.

Yes it can be done, in fact it could be done right now but it would cost way more than it's worth. Ask yourself how much of what you do is science and how much is art...it's the art that makes automation hard unless you're willing to lose a LOT of airplanes. The military HAS lost a lot of UAV;s but they haven't taken any passengers with them.

Re. Buran...the USAF is doing exactly the same thing right now with a classified program (check google). But basic automated airplane flying is technologically very easy...It's actually easier to do in space because you know where all the obstacles are and there are no "pop-up" targets or weather. But it sure as hell ain't cheap...and if it fails dramatically, oh well.
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