http://www.gao.gov/assets/130/128827.pdf
The more things change the more they remain the same. We are only just now seeing the first wave of Flag or General Officers who were eligible for the bonus. Even now many of the decision makers never had a chance to take the bonus and disdained it and those who took it.
Just a couple years ago i listened as a very senior aviator flag bragged that "we have retention figured out". Really? So that whole post 911 economy and airline swoon had nothing to do it?
Would argue it has everything to do with it. Managing pilot inventory is a long term evolution and those in charge are not doing it long term, and probably are insulated from hearing the issues that are causing them challenges and are about to get much worse.
The good news is if you want to be an Airline pilot, the services adjusting downwards the bonus, sending pilots home early "selectively", and cutting every flight hour possible while demanding more and more non cockpit activities from JPME to Community service is a great sign that hiring is about to get going very strongly. In the last two hiring "waves", the military actually did the same things they are doing now.
Take the bonus if it is in your interest and you were gonna stay anyway. Mil retirement is no joke. But how much desk time and risk of retiring non current can you absorb?
Good luck.