Originally Posted by Sliceback

Six years? First time I've heard that. I think 8 yrs will be the earliest with w/b 2-3 yrs after the first upgrades.



Legacy carriers are closing in on SW's financial performance or outperforming them. The battlefield has changed.



2nd qtr margins -



DL 8.7

US 8.4

AK 8.4

SW 5.9

AA 5.5

UA 5.2

JB 2.7



I forget the exact 3rd qtr results but I think DL was 9.8, and the rest were in basically the same order.



As far as furlough risk? Hard to say. History works against the Legacy carriers. But looking back in history SW was a different airline as were the Legacy carriers.



In the next 10 yrs SW retires 27% of their pilot corps(1750/6350). AA is at 48%(3700/7700). US retires about the same percentage. That's mandatory retirements. If the typical guy leaves a year early AA will retire 55% by end of 2023. It only takes 42%, or under 10 yrs, to get to the junior CA percentage at AA (58%).



Right now junior w/b CA is 49-55% at AA(depending upon which union job data base number you use). With a static airline 45-51% retirements would generate the first newhire w/b CA. That's 10 yrs, or less, from today. The numbers are stunning. Hopefully it works out.



However, US has a lot less w/b's. AA is removing 8(?) w/b's from domestic flying. That will make w/b CA go more senior. But AA/US will need additional w/b's if the DL and UA w/b fleet percentage is the ideal. Got a crystal ball? I'd guess AA/US will require a significant increase of w/b a/c to offset US's w/b weakness. That increase should make junior w/b CA approx. 47-55% in 10 yrs.