Originally Posted by
OscartheGrouch
I hate to admit it, but I have been in (or associated with) this industry for too long. Sunshine and rainbows? Five years from now we will see. With the current hiring situation even I would have to agree that AA looks better. I might even make the decision to go there instead of SWA. The same decision was being made by my fellow aviators in The late 80's and fortunately for me I wanted to be at SWA. Was I naive? Probably, but it worked out a lot better for me than those who went to AA, DAL, et al who were furloughed.
There are no guarantees in this industry so please spare us all the "I know what I am talking about" arguments.
As usual many of the airlines are planning on the wonderful revenue continuing to support their future business plan. Promises and contracts are made based on events that may or not happen. Even SWA better get ready for the next economic downturn. Somehow when the money and passengers dry up everybody wonders why. It will happen and planning for it is wise. Good luck with those who have a decision to make. Just saying!
The Oscar
Indeed its a whole lot of speculation, but we all still have to do our homework. When you went to SWA, was it a mature company with no movement and no upgrade in sight? My guess is when you went there things were a little different. None of us can predict the future, but we can make educated decisions. It is a fact that AA/US will have to retire a a massive chunk of their seniority list in the next decade. That's a known quantity, even if the retirement age goes up. They will be forced to hire replacement pilots by the thousands. Ok that last statement there, you can say that's speculation. But you can either believe that, or believe that AA will shrink and die. I choose the optimistic scenario. This doesn't mean SWA isn't also going to do well; I believe it will continue to prosper. This discussion is about a new hire decision, not which airline is going under (neither will).
Again, your perspective at SWA is going to be different from a new hire. Youre a senior CA there, you've got a great deal. A new hire will never be able to come to SWA and do what you did. If they come with the mindset that they can be the next CA Oscar Grouch, they will be setting themselves up for disappointment.