I have preached for years that what you buddy did who got hired here 10 years ago many times has nothing to do with what you will see in your career here.
The place to be in 2004 may not be the place to be in 2014. FedEx and SWA were THE places to be not long ago. Guys hired there in 1997-98 were captains in 5-6 years. Run the numbers on an 05 hire at FedEx and look how long they are from WB captain, much less NB captain....its not pretty.
Now--I work at FDX and love it. SWA has treated their pilots well over the years. I'm not bashing either company. But I would remind you that the airline of choice in 1998 was not FedEx nor SWA for most folks...it was AA, Delta, and United. Today I have guys who are sitting on apps saying "I only want to work with FedEx..., not interested in other companies..." I understand having a favorite, but at the same time having the vision to try to see where companies might be in 10 years vice what your buddies did 10 years ago might actually take you farther down the road...
Biggest poker player in the game? The guys who got hired at US Air in 2012/2013. I think we are all going to be admiring their luck/guts in about 5 years as we hear them flying transcons in brand new 321s....