I've said it before...if you are think AA's pay rates of 2018 are 100% guaranteed to be there in 4 yrs, then you haven't followed this industry very long (why does everyone assume SWA is getting no pay raises in the next 4yrs and is only hiring 250 this year??? I can't predict the future but I bet they get a pay raise or two before 2018 and I bet they hire more than just the 250 this yr). Do the math on the first 4 yrs of pay on a 737, I bet SWA pays significantly more. What if SWA has a base you can drive to and AA doesn't? There are more "ifs" associated with AA (if this happens and if this happens then I will be the highest paid 777CA 10 yrs after being hired). I think with SWA, you have alot less "ifs"...sure you may only be a 737FO in 15 yrs but for some, that's ok if you know it's with a company that has shown nothing but stability for 30 yrs, AA can't say that. If you think Doug Parker is a better CEO than Gary Kelly, AA is the place for you. I agree, the stagnation at SWA will probably be much worse than the "projected lack of stagnation" at AA but my crystal ball says go with whoever hires you first, has a base you can drive to, and who has shown some stability. If you must fly widebodies internationally, AA is your only choice. Choose wisely and not based of the advice of people on the internet. Let us know how the choice worked out 30 yrs from now...
I'm not disagreeing with most of what you wrote, but if you are a mil guy (and I once was), 96% of our daydreaming was pay - rolling in bushels of greenbacks for doing really no work - and 4% was "that other stuff".
There are probably well over 1,000 FO's at AA who could be a captain and make more $$ than they do now. They don't. They camp out where they are, because they like it there.
Money is nice. But I'll happily leave 20% or more on the table to avoid domestic narrowbody CA reserve, and instead fly 9 days a month.
As someone looking to get hired, a non-121 aviator must carefully examine so much more than pay tables. You have, and you mention critical things like commuting, and the style and type of flying you want to do... but I wanted to toss this out there as food for thought.