Originally Posted by
embraer
It's kind of misleading.
We did little to no hiring between mid '08 and mid '10.
Which means once the upgrades reach the 08 hires later this next year it will jump to the mid/late 2010 hires. So within the year upgrades will be around the 4 year mark. Possibly less.
What makes you so sure upgrades will go into the 2008 hires? I'm a late 2007 hire and do not see upgrading next year as a probability.
This is a shrinking airline. 21 planes gone in 2014 is approximately 190-200 pilots less required. The flow is suppose to be metered, as said by Bartle (we know that can change). If the flow can get through 300 pilots next year, that would be amazing! But it is already partly offset by approximately 200 less pilots required. And I think 300 flowing is also very optimistic.
Now, you can reasonably assume the majors will take some captains here as well. But trying to estimate that is difficult at best. I'd love to hear some real expectations on that.
I'm not trying to doom and gloom. I believe there will be some upgrades and movement. That is a good thing. But I want some real hard facts and numbers, not projection based on feeling.
Currently, attrition is coming as much from the bottom as it is the top. Attrition never presents the same kind of opportunities that growth does.