Somebody asked me to update this thread today, so here goes...What's changed since 2008?
The good news:
- Oil/fuel prices are *somewhat* more stable for at least the mid-term due to increased global production, and specifically increased US production as well as improvements in energy and fuel conservation.
- There have been no ground-breaking advances in automation, and in fact some DoD UAS programs have struggled to deliver the goods at a reasonable cost. I would pretty much rule out unmanned airliners in the next 30-40 years (remote possibility that you might see cargo planes). Single-pilot airliners are not an option until you develop a fully- autonomous airliner since pilot incapacitation would require full autonomy as a backup. People will debate this, but the debate is not about technology, it's about cost vs. benefit. Also there is the cultural issue...even airline managers will be afraid to get rid of pilots because then THEY have to accept full responsibility for the successful outcome of each flight. Unmanned airliners will happen eventually, but there is no discernible roadmap or timeline.
- Mandatory airline retirements dictate improved hiring opportunities for the next 10-15+ years.
The not-so-good news:
- Airlines have gotten better at controlling costs, and are now absolutely brutal when it comes to managing their regional feeders. Despite the alleged pilot shortage, no regional can be considered a secure career for anyone under the age of 50. If you have to do regionals, have a plan to get in, get your time, and get out...don't get stuck, set yourself a hard deadline and walk away before you invest too much time.
- Major hiring: Major hiring has always been a bit of a crap-shoot, but IMO it's even more so now with the advent of web-based applicant and psych screening tools that weed out applicants before a real person even knows they exist. It's asking a lot to commit all the time, money, and lost opportunity cost knowing that you'll have to roll the dice 10-15 years down the road...and your entire career will depend on an opaque computer program written by some dude who is probably the furthest thing from aviation material that you could imagine.