Old 12-05-2014 | 07:45 AM
  #86  
pagey
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Originally Posted by Cubdriver
Seems like an honest opinion but that guy appears more worried about his student supply than anything else. I had some trouble getting his charts to open on my browser but I can see the supply of ATPs is and will continue to remain steady with time, which is something I already knew.

The thing about myths is, they are very hard to put aside when they pay so much in terms of immediate pleasure. The pilot shortage myth is just like crack cocaine- once you start doing it you see only ways to get more dope. You filter out anything that tells you it is a mirage and your viewpoint is contaminated. But if you want to see the real situation you will begin to gather the real facts. One of them is that airlines attract too any applicants. That in turn drives down pilot wages. It's always been like that and for the foreseeable future it will remain so. Flying airliners is an unusually competitive profession. Wages will not go up very much, and pilots will remain in oversupply.
Why is it that the charts/literature/etc. that say there is no shortage are correct when the charts that say there is a shortage are not?

There are plenty of industry "experts" on both sides of the coin.

Who's to say which is correct.

I do think it's safe to say that we are setup to see an unprecedented amount of attrition at legacy and major airlines due to retirement numbers never before seen.

There is most certainly a shortage in other parts of the world.

Will DAL/UAL/AAG ever run out of resumes? Probably not. However, if one's goal is to fly for a legacy, the next decade or so will probably see the best chance to do so since the 1960's.

That being said, regionals ARE running out of resumes. I don't think it's an impossibility at places like spirit, allegiant, JetBlue etc. either down the road.

Everyone's definition of a shortage will vary.
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