Originally Posted by
Da40Pilot
I doubt that will happen. Incentives will go up, retention bonuses, sign on bonuses and even salaries if needed. They're just trying to milk the game as much as they can before they're forced to pay us what we're worth. It's just a matter of time. You think mainline is going to want to offer a mainline contract with all its perks to a CRJ200 F/O? They're just gonna raise the hourly rate. Cheaper in the long run. Regionals arent going anywhere.....
....well, yes they are. Will they disappear in 5 years ?
No. But, the increasingly limited number of resources, specifically pilots will result in a regional network 5 years from now, half its present size, but with predominantly 64-76 seat jets. "Incentives" already have gone up with some offering $10,000 bonuses. In that case, it's equivalent to a $11.00/hour raise for new-hires based on 75 hours/month for the first year.
Are pilots climbing over each other to get to regional airlines because of that ?
No.
Sure, they could just keep raising regional F/O pay, but at some point two things happen. First, it would surpass new-hire pay at the legacies and second and more importantly, it would negate the financial benefits of operating the RJ's in the first place. The whole premise of the regional industry is based on providing the flight for cheaper then can be done at the legacy. Once that no longer is applicable, the regional flight either disappears or is placed to where it becomes cheaper to operate...the mainline legacy. In reality, it will be both.
Some flying simply cannot be done profitably by mainline carriers as some routes never could support large enough aircraft that the legacies operate and the smaller aircraft would require too much pay and benefits not just from pilots, but across the board at legacies to make it feasible. This flying will cease. That means many small towns will lose air service altogether forcing its residents to travel by land to farther medium-sized towns or even hub cities. This produces less available seats which drives up prices. Medium-sized cities will see a reduction in air service with less frequency and more limited connecting opportunities which also drive up prices due to less available seats.
But, since there still won't be enough berths at mainline carriers for every pilot who fogs a mirror, some will be available to operate the smaller regional system. If it ever gets to the point where any tom, dick or harriet who wants to be a pilot at a major airline can walk into new-hire training, there will be few pilots left to stay at the regionals and then they disappear entirely. That possibility is at least a decade off and likely far longer then that. In the interim, look for steady contraction with various managements simply burning the furniture to heat the house as well as a lot of asset shuffling and consolidation. That phase is here now and has several more years to go. Most of the legacies don't have major expansion plans right now, so hiring at the rate of retirements is a good ball park figure. In AA's case due to still being in the merger process, full synergy hasn't occurred and there wont be as much opportunity for awhile just as was the case when United/Continental and Delta/Northwest merged. I believe both those carriers hired few, if any pilots during there first few years of merger shake-out.