Sorry for the long post. Last December I posted some speculation, then followed up a month later. It now looks like much of the speculation has become fact. What happens to Compass seems to be the one remaining issue.
Originally Posted by Ftrooppilot (6 months ago)
FACTORS
NWA owns 30+ % of Mesaba (Mair Holdings)
NWA Senior Management owns a significant % of Mesaba (Mair Holdings)
NWA owns Mesaba aircraft and equipment
Mesaba is a "body factory." No concrete and bricks to purchase.
NWA has new CRJs and ERJs comming (may need court approval)
NWA short routes with average load factor can be flown by 90 seaters.
NWA pilots object to any regional flying aircraft with over 50 seats.
GOAL
Increase MAIR holdings stock value . (Management makes money.)
Reduce costs by using CRJs instead of A-320s, etc.on some routes
Avoid NWA pilot protest over commuter 90 seat issue.
Exercise greater control over owned assets.
Have a solely owned regional capability (like COMPASS was to be.)
Maintain crew staffing levels. Avoid eventual pilot shortage.
Make money.
SOLUTION
Assign 50 seat CRJs / ERJs to regional contractor (not Mesaba). (To Pinnacle then 17 back to Mesaba)
Purchase Mesaba (ready made regional airline) (Done)
Incorporate Mesaba personnel into NWA. (Done ???)
Assign 90 seat CRJs to NWA (former Mesaba personnel) (Mesaba - for now)
Establish a "flow through" for crew members. (Done as of today)
RESULTS
NWA Makes money and comes out of bankruptcy. (Done)
NWA senior managers make money on their[Mesaba] stock.
(Check both Mesaba and NWA management bonuses)
NWA pilots are happy that 50 seats and below go to regionals. (Done - with flow back they have access. )
NWA has regional capability (foil to testy regional contractors) (Done)
Former Mesaba pilots are happy to be part of NWA with flow through. (Happy with CRJs / Now have flow through)
Compass option is cancelled. (IMHO - It will happen.)
NWA avoids a potential pilot shortage at the "major" level. (Draw from Mesaba)
And they all lived happily ever after.
.
Batting average isn't bad. My best guess - Compass will fade into the sunset or disolve into NWA. The ERJs will go to Mesaba or NWA mainline. Much depends upon the finalized relationship after NWA purchases Mesaba. Will the name Mesaba be dropped ? Lots of interesting senarios possible.