FlyingSlowly

I must admit I'm new here, but want to throw a different perspective into the mix on "building flight time." [Skip to the bold to avoid my time-building CFI advice rant.]

It seems like the advice is always to work as a CFI if you want to build hours. In every thread where someone wants other ideas to avoid it, they get told to 'suck it up' (or similar). The perspective is often juvenile: "I did it, you should too"...almost like it's a mandatory right of passage in aviation. But that's not the point here. Please don't respond with the virtues of having worked as a CFI.

I GET IT. You really only know something well if you can teach it...blah, blah, blah... I have taught high school for multiple years. Both physics and math. I have a B.S. in Physics. I know about teaching, and am not afraid of challenging technical or complex subject matter. I think if I were to have continued teaching full-time A FEW MORE YEARS, I would really learn how to be an exceptional teacher. For the same reason I would never go to a low-time CFI (anyone with less than 1,000 hours or so of dual already given). A Flight Instructor should be the pinnacle of aviation, not a career stepping stone...and below the Regionals at that! But I digress...

My point is different. The problem with the old "CFI pipeline" model is simple: there is no way (mathematically speaking) student pilot training will be able to support even a fraction of the pilots working toward airline careers within the newly mandated climate of 1500 hours. There are simply too few who are both interested and able to begin flight lessons (either with career aspirations or for business/leisure flying). Look at the student pilot data...not too promising lately.

Furthermore, there have never been more CFIs with active certificates. The FAA data says so. Right around 99,000 at present (2013 data). This number was 64,000 in 1990. That's the supply side. Now for the demand. There were about 40,000 NEW private pilots created in 1990. And the most recent data from 2013? Less than 16,000 new private pilots. Not looking good for anyone wanting to work as a CFI!!! These numbers mean that the ratio of NEW private pilots to active CFIs has decreased by a factor of four. In other words, there are four (4) times fewer students per CFI now than in 1990 (using PPL completion as an indicator). Only one out of four!!


The question is this: Are there enough low-time jobs and CFI jobs COMBINED to produce sufficient numbers of 1500-hour pilots for the airlines? Is there enough demand in the Part 91 segment (plus Part 135 SIC) to produce pilots capable of applying for FO positions?

[Please do not make this a debate about the merits of working as a CFI or about slamming the 1500-hour rule. Let's discuss the question above!!]