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Old 08-22-2015 | 03:37 PM
  #1416  
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Originally Posted by AlaskaBound
I agree with most of what you said with a couple of exceptions. Pinnacle back in the day had over 240 airframes so I doubt that other carriers could have swooped in and picked up the slack as easily as some might think. In my option Delta had no choice but to save them to salvage the feed. You're right, however, that there's no way any other regionals could handle the amount flying if Republic went out of business.
However, I don't think Republic would go out of business (they would restructure)...I do think they would shrink considerably, get out of leases early that don't make financial sense, and reduce the labor group numbers. They wouldn't have to hire more because the attrition would match the reduction in airframes.
I do believe that there are some regionals out there willing to pick up some of the slack and I think they could handle the growth if it was spread out over several carriers.
All regionals will eventually face this situation. Most will fail in 5 years. Some will fail in 2016. Republic will also fail or reduce in size significantly. The numbers just don't lie, there is not enough pilots to fill the retirement vacuum let alone those who leave prior to retirement or go overseas for better opportunity.
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