While 10 or 15 years to upgrade isn't a bad thing, it is far longer than most people have banked on.
Tell that to a 15 or 20 year F/O over at US AIRWAYS.......
This industry is cyclical. Just because growth is 5% now doesn't mean that it won't be 8% next year or 2% for that matter.
Game plans change, you just gotta hope that you hit the timing right.