View Single Post
Old 11-06-2015, 06:42 AM
  #29  
eaglefly
Banned
 
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,350
Default

Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
My best estimate for 2016 from their information is they will hire 750 next year. We get 375. They estimate 100-150 furloughs may return. That leaves a worst case next year of 225 flowing. This is 5 more than what's required to prevent stepping up above pay step 12. It also jives with their advertisement of at least 200 upgrades next year.

2017 should be another 375 to flow, but no more recalls; but I bet they will withhold to 30 each month - 360 for the year - and just have to catch up in the aggregate.

That's 600 of our CA's gone in two years by flow to AA. Doesn't include the guys going elsewhere.

It's fair to say we are on track for their 2.5/6 to be a really good estimate.
Again, 375 would be a little more than 31/month. 225 would be just under 19/month, both as averages. There WILL be outside attrition at Envoy to be sure, but how many is a wildcard. I think at least 10/month would be conservative.

In other words, Envoy will need 30-40 pilots/month to maintain current staffing. Each and every month. It's what I've been saying all along. As for ANYTHING past 2016, that is simply a projection or as you say an "estimate". In fact, AAG makes no guarantees about any specifics beyond 2016 other than assumptive projections. Anyone who comes to Envoy with confidence in upgrading in 2.5 years or flowing to AA in 6 is misguided IMO. To be fair, the same could be said for any regional making any long-term claims of certainty.

Even next year for Envoy, the range of flows by your own admission varies by up to 40% based on up to 150 senior Envoy pilots who may or may not flow.
eaglefly is offline