RyanP

I have no idea how accurate that will be. Ask Rick Wilson for his magic calculation spreadsheet formula that all the overpaid execs at AAG spent so much time with. He explained it all to me, in person, and what assumptions it uses. I asked him to explain it and told him right to his face in front of a group of people we all thought it was bogus. I don't know if 2.5 can happen, he didn't convince me with certainty, seems a bit optimistic to me and a lot of their assumptions need to come true. I think it WILL happen if things continue as planned (eventually) though, just may not be right away. It will take a little time for the ball to get rolling.. and yes obviously new hires are needed. Which we are getting the target number now, or close to it, supposedly.

All I know is there is about to be a hell of a lot of movement. 400+ pilots leaving a year from here is predicted via flow and outside attrition. (barring some major disaster). That number will decrease over time as the flow percentage goes down after we get through about 80% of us, but that is where it is about at for 2016-2018 with flow and attrition. We have 2000ish pilots. Even "if" we shrink down to optimal staffing of 1700 or so. Very simple math, you lose 1000+ pilots over the next 3 years, puts a new hire around upgrade on the list, even if shrinking some. Upgrades at historically around 60-64% seniority on the list.

I think the 1500 pilot number thrown around speculatively by pilots was before, now we aren't shrinking as much, we are holding on to our current fleet longer, and we've taken on more block hours. It may come to that in time, who knows, but for 2016 we now know it's well more than 1500 pilots they need here.