Originally Posted by
RyanP
I have no idea how accurate that will be. Ask Rick Wilson for his magic calculation spreadsheet formula that all the overpaid execs at AAG spent so much time with. He explained it all to me, in person, and what assumptions it uses. I asked him to explain it and told him right to his face in front of a group of people we all thought it was bogus. I don't know if 2.5 can happen, he didn't convince me with certainty, seems a bit optimistic to me and a lot of their assumptions need to come true. I think it WILL happen if things continue as planned (eventually) though, just may not be right away. It will take a little time for the ball to get rolling.. and yes obviously new hires are needed. Which we are getting the target number now, or close to it, supposedly.
I think it's a healthy attitude to take managements claims with skepticism. More should do that. The present numbers though if they are meeting target is a rate that ensures contraction based on outside attrition projections, but as you seemed to imply before, contraction is the plan for Envoy as you are overstaffed. Again, I fail to see how an airline that plans to contract can generate fast upgrades unless the required number of new-hires are met consistently month after month to meet that contraction and that would be in the 30-40 range. Anything less means contraction, which as you seem to imply is indeed the plan.
Originally Posted by
RyanP
All I know is there is about to be a hell of a lot of movement. 400+ pilots leaving a year from here is predicted via flow and outside attrition. (barring some major disaster). That number will decrease over time as the flow percentage goes down after we get through about 80% of us, but that is where it is about at for 2016-2018 with flow and attrition. We have 2000ish pilots. Even "if" we shrink down to optimal staffing of 1700 or so. Very simple math, you lose 1000+ pilots over the next 3 years, puts a new hire around upgrade on the list, even if shrinking some. Upgrades at historically around 60-64% seniority on the list.
I think the 1500 pilot number thrown around speculatively by pilots was before, now we aren't shrinking as much, we are holding on to our current fleet longer, and we've taken on more block hours. It may come to that in time, who knows, but for 2016 we now know it's well more than 1500 pilots they need here.
In the last few years, Envoy had 400+ annual attrition and it resulted in no bombshell advancements for Envoy pilots, in fact, quite the opposite. Start getting 35/month for 6 months or so and an increasing trend and I'd be willing to see things differently. The block hours and fleet plans have recently changed due to industry conditions and can and likely will change again in unanticipated directions for the same reasons in the future. There is a lot of fluidity in what Parker is doing as he is simply moving the house furniture around for the time being to best maximize AA feed coverage (this is good for me as feed coverage in necessary for a strong AA....at least until that model collapses and Delta's and United opposing tack proves the better long-term move).
What ends up REALLY happening in 2017, 18 or 19, etc., is really anyone's guess including both Parker and Envoy management. If Parker had his druthers, I'm sure he'd still be chocking the life out of Envoy and its pilots for not playing ball. For now, that simply isn't good business.