Originally Posted by
emb145
Hopefully you have apps in at the Big 3, Alaska, Jetblue, Spirit, Virgin, etc. I wouldn't sit around Envoy waiting on the big flow if any of the above call.
Most envoy pilots outside of the 824 that I talk with have this attitude. The Flow is great, but they are not waiting around for it. I can tell you though, that not since letter 3 was originally created, have I seen the flow work better than since Parker has taken over.
For the reason as you stated above, in the current and coming "mainline" hiring environment, Parker knows that his regional pilots will be leaving for other companies regardless of the flow. All regional airlines are going to have to increase pay. AA has to hire pilots, so with the flow, they offer an incentive to come to envoy, keep that pilot from leaving for Spirit and get an AA new hire that they were going to have to hire anyway. The flow is practically free for him to offer. Now, when he does have to increase his incentives to prospective regional new hires, he will only have to offer $10,000 bonuses instead of $20,000.
Even in a Defcon 1, situation critical scenario, I think envoy pilots will be just fine. Already the Big 3 are bringing former regional routes back to mainline as a solution to dealing with the forced reduction in regional lift. Delta is looking at flying the Embraer 190 at mainline along with its B717 fleet. United is adding A319 to cover this flying. AA already has a E190 fleet. When that time comes and Parker decides to convert the existing envoy E175s into E190s at mainline, where do you think he will get the pilots from to flying those aircraft?
Currently, Parker is advertising that envoy will be the quickest way for ( the average ) pilot to get to AA. If that incentive is not enough to attract sufficient regional new hires, it would be an easy transition for AA to say, its wholly owned regionals are the ONLY way to AA.
Also consider the alternatives for a 1500 hr pilot today. He could come to envoy and have a guarantee job at AA in 6 years. He could go to Endeavor for higher pay and one day get an interview with Delta but that deal has so many loopholes in it, he really stands a chance of never getting to go to Delta. He could go to RAH for higher pay but Bedford has already publically stated that RAH cannot afford the new cost structure. Bankruptcy is a real possibility there so that pilot runs the risk of having to start over in a year or two. And even if RAH is still around in 6 years, he will have to compete will all the other regional pilots, LCC, Cargo, and Military pilots for mainline pilots spots. And if more companies develop programs like Commutair just did, those interview spots will become fewer and fewer.
And RAH is not alone in its "rock and a hard place" position between pilot compensation and fixed CPA revenue. TSA, SkyWest, AWA, etc, all have a fixed revenue stream from their mainline CPA in a pilot market place of rapidly increasing costs. I do not see any of the mainline CEOs being willing to increase those companies revenue especially Doug Parker, RAH's biggest customer. I think we will see fewer regional contract airlines before we ever see envoy's staffing reach "critical mass".