The following is a post of mine under the same thread I posted on flight info. I reposted here for those that are interested.
Mike,
I agree with your frustrations on how their (manpower planning) math never equals are basic math skills. I have been studying these bids for twenty years and I would have no hair left if I pulled some out every time I tried compare the numbers on the current bid from the previous bid.
This is how manpower planning (really flight operations aka Abbott) make the bid show what they want the end result to be. They just change all of the numbers, vacancies, reductions, active pilots etc. to equal what they want.
Lets look at the current numbers on this bid.
System ALL
Retirements 91
Active pilots 4196 ****
Min total pilots 4639
Max total pilots 4642
Captain Vacancies 176
First Officer Vacancies 270
Total Vacancies 446
First of all lets look at the active pilots number ****
All management pilots (including flight instructors), LTD pilots, Sick Leave, Those on FTFPL for ALPA, those projected to retire on this or previous bids but still on property and any other pilot who is double bid is NOT counted in this number.
Secondly this is where the funny math comes into place. The last bid had 392 vacancies essentially 392 pilots had to be hired. I counted them last month and I'm not going to do so again (to time consuming) but we have only hired approximately 232 pilots since the last bid was posted until this bid was posted. Leaving 160 unfilled positions from the last system bid prior to this bid. Which really means we are rebidding 160 of the 446 new positions or vacancies on this bid thus meaning this bid only has 282 new positions or vacancies. Now subtract the 91 who are going to retire and you get 191 new positions due to growth. How many new pilots on sick leave or LTD since the last bid? that also reduces the true growth on this bid.
You get my point to look at the total numbers they are just a shill for management to show what they want.
On the other hand if you look at the relative seniority of your placement in sub bases IE what the bid snap shot shows or what the real bid results will yield. The overall percentage of each pilot will be the close next year if age 60 and pilot hiring continues as projected.
I explained this already above at nausiam.
Lastly I need to re emphasize this because many don't understand. Use me as an example last bid which is effective FEB 08 had me at 247 out of 372 EWR B756 captains or 66%. August 07 staffing has me at 289/387 or 75%. It would appear we are now at about the half way point and I need to move from 289 to 247 by Feb 08 for the last bid to come to fruition.
However remember system bids double bid (or don't take into account those on LTD, management, training or those of FTFPL for the union. System staffing does. If I subtract the 25 or so in that category today that don't fly the line that takes me staffing wise down to 264 and if you look at the 15 or so who will retire above me on the EWR B756 from now through Jan 31, 2007 that will take me to number 249, subtract a few above me not already trained or advanced into their last system bid position and I am basically where I was projected to be on the last bid right now six months ahead of time.
Again nothing I said above takes away from the fact we need to negotiate a real staffing formula, system bidding section (to mirror what AA has) and other key changes.
Mike I look forward to flying with you soon. I am doing one Madrid and five Lisbon's in August. Sep have a week of vacation and I am supposed to work at the CAL ALPA puzzle palace for one week. Maybe we can fly soon. I love the airplane don't know what I was thinking about on that sh$t box the 737 for eight years and 5000 hours.
Frats,
Jayson
AGAIN FOR ALL THOSE USING THE SNAP SHOT TO ASSIST IN MAKING BID DECISIONS BY COMPARING WHAT % THE SNAP SHOT ESTIMATES YOU AT (ONE YEAR FROM NOW) WITH A RECENT REVIEW OF MONTHLY PBS RESULTS FOR THOSE ALREADY IN YOUR PROJECTED BID % TO SEE WHAT YOU CAN EXPECT SCHEDULE AND DAYS OFF WISE TO HOLD YOU NEED TO ADJUST THE FOLLOWING.
LOOK AT ALL THOSE ABOVE YOU ON STAFFING TODAY THAT ARE ON SICK LEAVE (SKLV) OR LTD (ULA) OR UNION WORK (PLA) AND SUBTRACT THAT FROM YOUR CURRENT STAFFING NUMBER. NOW RECALCULATE YOUR CURRENT REAL STAFFING PERCENTAGE. NOW WHEN YOU COMPARE YOUR REAL STARTING POINT % TO THE BID PROJECTED END POINT (NEXT AUG) YOU ARE COMPARING APPLES TO APPLES. WHEN THE BID COMES OUT LOOK AT YOUR ACTUAL NUMBER AND ADD ALL THOSE WHO ARE ON LTD ETC (THOSE DOUBLE BID ON THE SYSTEM BID)AND THAT WILL BE WHAT YOUR AUG 08 STAFFING NUMBER HOPEFULLY WILL BE (BEST CASE SCENARIO). YOU WILL NEVER ON THIS BID BE STAFFED AT YOUR SYSTEM BID AWARD NUMBER BECAUSE OF ALL THOSE NOT ACTIVLY FLYING DOUBLE BID AREN'T DOUBLE BID ARE ACTUALLY INCLUDED AND ACCOUNTED FOR ON THE MONTHLY SYSTEM STAFFING.
ALSO FOR THOSE UNAWARE YOU CAN VIEW ALL PREVIOUS PBS AWARDS FOR ALL BES (BASE EQUIPMENT AND STATUS) ON
WWW.PREFBID.COM
REMEMBER THAT WONDERFUL CAL OLD ADAGE BID WHAT YOU WANT AND NOT WHAT YOU DON'T WANT.