Good points here.
Pilots want the shiny jet. Logic or reasoning aside, the actions of the new hires that choose not to continue training at Envoy are obvious. Compounding the issue with lack of slots for the desired aircraft are all the issues we deal with every day, lower first year pay, and only two bases to choose from.
The lack of upgrades is another issue. No upward movement is a big deal, nobody wants to sit on reserve forever, everybody wants the PIC time and better pay. Recruits see the stagnation here and don't apply to work here making the problem worse.
The flow could honestly be very attractive, but its function depends on hiring and upward movement. Management continues to advertise the flow and upgrade time as a selling point for pilots to work here, yet have done everything they could possibly do wrong to make their promises reality.
Yes, if the flow stops people will absolutely leave. The first decent job that calls, they'll quit. It doesn't even have to be an LCC. Just as previously, they'll leave to fly a corporate gig close to home. Become an airfield manager. Instruct in a sim. Chief pilot at a school. I've flown with many that did just this. They've had it with the lousy schedules, low time lines, inability to commute and the overall abuse. They'll quit alright.
Everything hinges on hiring. Management needs to get their collective ****** together, get some additional bases and get training running like gangbusters to make room in the shiny jet pipeline if they expect people to come work here.