Originally Posted by
Shiner
I don't know if you keep up with the hiring news going on above the regional level, but things are changing quickly. Most of the bottom tier LCC jobs are pretty easy to attain, it just takes a little groundwork. Corporate jobs are opening up all over as corporate pilots shuffle into the regionals to try and get 121 time on their resume for the legacies. Overseas jobs are there and attainable if a pilot is so inclined. And the legacies are not slowing down.
For most FO's that are staying, their top choice is AA. They aren't going to hustle for a job at Frontier or head overseas to Emirates to get out of the regional rat race. They are staying here, and watching what happens. Maybe FO's here felt trapped in the past, but I promise you, most that want out now, are getting out.
How much will they put up with, should the flow be modified or slowed (outside of the contract)? My guess is, not much.
I think we both agree that within the next year something will happen. We can't flow 30/month and hire 10. It's not sustainable. I think they need us. I think they will figure out they need us more than we need them. Same goes for PDT and PSA. Their model is not working and they still need their RJ's flying.
In the first part of this post, you assert that most Envoy F/O's aren't going anywhere as the want to go to AA. I agree on that, but then you say most will leave if the flow is slowed they will leave, which I don't buy. LCC jobs aren't being handed out wholesale, at least not yet and most will stick it out in the hope things will improve as the previous poll indicated. Many will leave if offered a better deal regardless.
Yes, they need you, but even if they increase pay, you're still in an RJ and not building AA seniority and that doesn't bring in newbies, nor prevent people from bailing to the likes of Jet a Blue or Spirit, let alone Delta or United, both of which are slated to have very robust hiring schedules over the next few years. Putting you on the AA list, even a staple will require APA and AA pilot approval and Parker just blew another loogie in the BOD's face and thus AA pilots, so there will be NO interest in bailing him out of his RJ addiction without serious contractual modifications akin to parity with Delta and I don't see any chance at least for now of that until 2020 or beyond.
AFAIC, the farce of the culture change that did happen just in the WRONG direction means most here would prefer to fold their arms and watch Rome burn in regards to his regional conundrum even at the expense of contraction at mainline. Parker bombed in his chance to demonstrate an ethical compass and will receive no consideration from the mainline pilot group unless either he pony's up a Delta package or the APA BOD settles for scraps and passes that to the pilots who might then repeat history and run for .15 on the dollar again.