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Old 02-02-2017, 07:04 AM   #7  
viper548
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: A-320
Posts: 1,058
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We park 9 767s and 17 757s this year. It might take a while to get on the 767. 777 goes to about 10,600. Based off of projected retirements a new hire would get there in a little over 6 years. We have more 787s coming and the A350 as well. We have 112 group 4 planes right now and that goes up to 125 this year, 126 in 2018, 131 in 2019, 136 in 2020, 141 in 2021, 146 in 2022. I think it's overly optimistic to assume they will all come as scheduled. They've already deferred deliveries because they aren't ready for more large airplanes right now.
PBS is coming to the bigger bases and as people realize how bad it is for those on the bottom and how good it is for those on top, I think more people will choose to stay senior on smaller planes, making those junior group 4 FO spots go more junior.

All things considered, I'd guess someone hired now could get group 4 in 5-6 years.
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