Originally Posted by
rickair7777
Given retirements, it would take a pretty big collapse to trigger furloughs... anybody who furloughs knows they might not get those guys back.
While I agreen with your rosy outlook, it always helps to have a “red” team look.
Factors that could change the picture:
- Upgauging on many routes. Using less frequency and larger planes would be more efficient and use fewer pilots. We may have reached the end of frequency competition.
- JV deals like the many DL JVs could “out source” jobs.
- Reduction in RJ flying providing fewer paths to majors. That could lead to ab initio programs
Black swan event like another 9/11. Might not furlough but another decade of stagnation.
None are reasons for leaving or not entering aviation, but possibilities.
GF