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Old 06-06-2018, 12:35 AM   #48  
wjcandee
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Joined APC: Aug 2016
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An important near-term issue for the volume of business serviced by ABX is the what happens with the DHL contract that expires in about 9 months. At that time, the CAM leases to DHL on the 767-200s expire. The CMI agreement for ABX to operate the 767-200s and 767-300s also expires then. The dry leases on the 767-300s expire at various times between 2019 through 2025. A significant question is to what extent DHL finds itself wanting to replace some or all of the remaining 767-200s with -300s from, say Kalitta, who should have at least 5 in his fleet by then, or Atlas, which seems presently to be converting more -300s than they need for Amazon. Also whether DHL wants to continue to use ABX to operate the dry-leased -300s.

DHL is of course the kind of operation that can probably best use the express-carrier orientation and tribal knowledge of ABX, even if it doesn't always appreciate its own need for a precision carrier like ABX. Although DHL has been reducing its utilization of ABX in kind of a Water Torture drip-drip-drip, management should be able to put an appealing-enough offer on the table to structure the retention of at least some of that flying. CAM ought to be doing what it can to find a DHL use (preferably in this country) for those -200s that really don't have much market value outside of DHL.

Obviously, labor peace would make the offer more appealing, but I don't see that happening anytime soon. Indeed, management is probably better off figuring out how much flying ABX actually needs to do when determining just how badly it needs to reach a labor agreement.

I do hope that things work out in a way that preserves this very-special and rich-in-history carrier, which of course is a direct result of the long-term excellent work of its pilots and large number of other employees.
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