Trying to predict upgrade times in this industry is a fool's errand. There are too many factors out of our control. When I was hired on at my present employer I planned on never upgrading. If I never do I will still be better off by a wide margin than if I had stayed for the factors that are important to me. Namely money, quality of life and working for a great company. Surprisingly as of today after a little more than two years I'm only 1900 from the junior Captain out of 9500. With projected hiring that's only three or so years if the bypass percentage remains constant. The economy, the Companies plans and the bypass rate are completely out of our control and can change on a dime. Personally I think Buffett lost interest after the great recession. One way or another he won't be in control for much longer, it's anyone's guess, good or bad, and completely out of our control as pilots what will happen then. Place your bets and don't look back.