If there is an economic downturn, there will be downward pressure on wages across the board. Today’s regional with a great contract and pay could just as easily start being whipsawed tomorrow.
That being said, look at the retirements at AA alone. Starting next year it becomes staggering and doesn’t really start to slow down for almost a decade. I was able to have a peak at some of the internal numbers for the looming retirements at AA just yesterday as a matter of fact. They are accounting for an increase by 10-15% of pilots electing to retire before 65 too. Not to mention the demographics of many of the pilots who have been flowing / being hired over the past couple years (40-45+). It would take some sort of cataclysmic event to slow the roll now. Even an economic downturn doesn’t account for 1,000 pilots /year retiring.
It’s similar to what has happened at PSA since 2014... Think of all the LCA positions that will be available. Management positions if you so choose. Positions within APA or the Safety Department or the Training Department. Anyone getting on at AA in the next couple years will experience almost unbeatable career potential not seen at a legacy in decades. Those who are looking further down the road need not worry either. The retirements and movement are just one piece of the puzzle at every single carrier. In another year or two nothing will look the same.