Originally Posted by
ENH017
The unofficial seniority lists found on the union websites do not take into account things like attrition to other airlines, which would shorten what is being predicted by them. No one knows for sure (probably) but I'm confident the company has their own internal numbers for predicted attrition outside of flow/retirement.
So union flow projection shows for me a 5.3 year flow and the company says 4.3 years. Can we get this in writing somewhere with a guarantee? Can we get this magical attrition algorithm the company is using published? The latest non-flow attrition numbers YTD were 205 pilots. We would need about that (aka 400 pilots in two years) to make the flow decrease by a year. It too bad attrition doesn’t work that way. Not everyone leaving is at the top of the seniority list. Most folks who leave are at the bottom. OAL hiring will be less of an issue when flow drops from 12 years to 5. Without seeing the company math I am assuming they are overestimating. Yes ALPA numbers are worst case, but they haven’t moved much in two years. In two years I went from 5.5 to 5.3, for it to drop to 4.3 in another two years seems off. Maybe others with more info on how they get these numbers can chime in.