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Old 01-31-2019, 08:20 PM
  #8  
FlyJSH
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Joined APC: Feb 2006
Position: Out.
Posts: 3,865
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Let's pretend for a moment....

Let's pretend that AI is good enough to fly a Caravan filled with 1000 lbs of jet fuel and 3000 lbs of cargo over little Billy and Mary's elementary school without crashing.

Looking at the Mountain Air Cargo (if not the largest employers of 208 pilots, certainly in the top 5) pay scale for 208 pilots start at 45k and rise to 50k at five years. (I stop at five years because not that many folks make a career of flying the Beast)

What do you think the insurance cost will be for an AI piloted Caravan vs. a human piloted one? Remember, insurance companies always think the plane will crash into Billy and Mary's school.

I'll give you a bit of a clue....

When I flew a 208B for a family who had a 40 year old son with a ppl, what they payed me was about the same as the difference in cost of the insurance if he had flown the plane. They were paying wages which were at that time equal to about a 3 or 4 year Mountain Air rate, so roughly average.

Insurance companies will need more than an Elon Musk promise that everything will work perfectly. Those companies will charge a huge premium for a computer piloted plane ... at least until someone else takes the risks to prove the concept.

Companies will pay for a pilot because he or she a cheaper to keep than eliminate.

Oh, and to give another insurance perspective, Lloyds of London insured at least the early Space Shuttle missions. The rate was roughly equal to a third the cost of a launch. In other words, Lloyds figured to break even if one flight out of three crashed. Considering that there were 135 missions of which 133 were successful, they probably made a ton of money.
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