Originally Posted by
RNO Flyer
So here's another question for people on the property. Assuming the A321neos are delivered as currently envisioned, does that keep the average upgrade to the left seat about where it is now for the next few years? I'm assuming that A220s acquisition will be offset by E190s leaving, but will the total fleet growth support math that keeps junior captain upgrades about where they are now (or at least close)?
I have only been on property for 2 years, so take what I say with a grain of salt.
I don't think upgrades will increase much over the next 3 years (as in times getting lower to upgrade). We are growing faster than retirees are leaving.
To put it into perspective for you, we plan to hire 350-400 this year. I'm guessing next year will be about the same. But the numbers retiring are 14/27/31/25/48 for the next five years. And of course, there is a little attrition, but in 2018 less than 70 left outside retirees. So if you figure 350 newhires, and 84 leave this year, earlier upgrades are not going to be a "thing".
Another factor to consider is that we have a pretty substantial number of FOs who have opted not to upgrade. That could remain constant, or change at any point. You would have a better chance at predicting where the next lottery ticket will be purchased than to predict how upgrades will go in the next few years.