Originally Posted by
BeatNavy
If you look at upgrades they will remain at a similar historical percentage, with some anomalies along the way, as there are typically a percentage of pilots who bypass for QOL/seniority. The 190 plug will probably continue to go at 70-80%, the 320 plug probably 60-70%. So do the math on 85 new planes in the next 6 years, and 15-16 pilots per plane, and figure out percentages on where you are/will be for the next napkin math possibility. The unknown about 190 retirements, and the wildcard of a new fleet and how junior/senior it will go, will probably cause a lot of anomalies over the next few years. But if you got hired in the next few months and were #4,000, it’ll take a while to get to that percentage range of being able to upgrade with as few retirements as there are. Maybe in 6 years someone hired today could hold the plug of the A220? Maybe less if the 190 stays longer. Maybe a lot longer if there is a downturn, more deferrals, earlier returns/sales/parking of 320s, etc. It’s a fool’s errand to really speculate in that much detail though. If I were planning on going to JB this year I would plan on not upgrading for 10 years. If it happened sooner great.
Good advice and analysis. When the A220 fully/mostly replaces the E90 I don't see the plug remaining in the 70-80% range. I believe the A220 will go more senior. It's pay rate is much closer to A320 pay and there are other characteristics that make the plane more desirable than the E90.
So overall I say it goes more senior. With the loss of 75% of OE trips, may not see as many senior bypassers in the future. Also, the E90 is a dying fleet, so I believe even less dudes are interested into upgrading onto it right now, which makes it stay/go so junior.
Couple that with few retirements, as the seniority list gets larger and larger, but the aircraft delivery schedule remains a constant 13-15 hulls a year, the airlines actual hull growth rate as a PERCENTAGE mathematically results in a lower growth rate each year. In others words, as a percentage, JB is constantly slowing it's hull growth rate. That will also result in slower seniority progression with each passing year if the delivery schedule remains a fixed 13-15.
As long as they continue to run upgrades onto the E90 during the transition, you will see some token really low longevity upgrades. After the conversion to the A220 is complete I would expect most upgrades will be 7+ years.
My guess.