Bus,
Coming to any of the AAWH airlines is a huge gamble right now, and I don't know that I'm optimistic that it will pay off.
As far as upgrades go, when I was hired I was told that I'd be a captain in 18-24 months. That was 3 years ago, and I am still at the very least another year - 18 months away from being able to hold it.
What should concern you most of all, though, is what company management has planned for the future here. At the most recent scope negotiation between the company and the union, the company lawyers basically said that they want the ability to vastly increase their dry-leasing business (as in, lease out the airplanes without any crew to fly them). Furthermore, they hinted that they don't want the crewmembers tied to the airplanes in the next CBA because they don't think that they would be able to sell the company as easily in that case.
Take a good long look at what out relationship with Amazon is here. All of our (AAWH) agreements with Amazon are CMI agreements, not ACMI agreements. What that means is that Amazon has leased our airplanes independently of the pilots who are flying them and can take all of those airplanes away with 180 days notice. The original agreement with Amazon was that they would lease our airplanes for 10 years, but only lease our crew services for 7. So, the idea that they'll be taking the airplanes away from us is baked right into the agreement.
It may sound like hyperbole, but I think that it is 100% reasonable to believe that we could start to see furloughs, and lots of them, once the 7 year crew leasing agreement is up. Which is when, about 3.5 years from now?
Feel free to PM me if you have any other specific questions.
Last edited by RyeMex; 07-20-2019 at 06:26 PM.