Originally Posted by
mkitrn
If the LCC/ULCCs started hiring at 1500 what would that mean for regionals and the scope issues?? Wouldn’t this also benefit the LCC/ULCC in that the more regional(cheap) flights the LCC/ULCCs take away in pilot capacity from the legacies regional networks the more market share they can take in those secondary markets. If they began to collude and focus on secondary markets that mainly regional airlines serve.
From an outsider it looks like the only price advantage legacies have is the regionals and if the LCC could find a way to end regionals they would have a major price advantage (scale still being an issue for the LCCs).
Also as an outsider it seems rather counterintutive for pilots to in one hand want scope protections but in the other hand complain when hiring minimums are lowered? This doesn’t make any sense? From looking through these forums it appears most pilots want to see younger pilots go through the regionals because it is what they had to do yet the same pilots complain about scope?
You're missing a lot pieces of the puzzle. For starters, if Spirit, Allegiant, Frontier etc started hiring pilots with 1500 hours as a rule, it would create a host of problems and changes to those organizations. Scope is the amount of flying that unions allow to be flown by pilots other than members; these rules cover percentage of total lift as well as size of aircraft among other things. Currently, the trend at some legacies has been to try and tighten scope and bring some of that flying back in house. This is a good thing if you are a pilot, but it is also good from a managerial stand point on some levels. For starters, direct control and accountability of the product. While money can certainly be saved outsourcing labor, there is always a price to pay, and that price isn't just dollars and cents on a balance sheet related to pilot pay. For instance, there are business travelers who avoid flying regional aircraft, and for good reasons. Further, those outsourced companies may considerably hurt your brand (Dr. Dao....). To your question, the pool of pilot applicants would likely shift to an extent to the LCC's, with certain demographics being more likely to pursue that path. This could then create a deepening shortage of qualified applicants at the regionals, who would then be forced to somehow compete for pilots. It would be interesting to see how their legacy partners/owners tackled the issue. It is possible that they would negotiate TAs to tighten scope further, but this would be a process, and in the meantime, what happens to all that lift??
Legacy airlines protect their market share and their fortresses viciously. And currently, they have the financial power to go through quite a fight. I do not believe that LCCs lowering their average total time hiring would much effect scope at all. If anything, I think you would see stronger career progression schemes and more direct ownership of regional airlines. These schemes can potentially guarantee a pilot of a legacy job in as little as four years (on paper), and there are going to be plenty of willing participants.
To your point of legacies only price advantage being the regionals, that's woefully naive. One word: scale. That, more than probably anything else, is their price advantage. Off the top of my head, here are few other advantages: brand recognition, network, frequent flier programs, product, lobby groups.... but scale is number one. Further, consider the amount of hiring at the legacies right now. It's huge. And IF they hire a large swath of age groups right now, over the next five - ten years, they will have the lowest paid pilot group they've had in decades. Huge savings for them over now.