Originally Posted by hindsight2020

Regarding military production woes, you guys are working with dated info. We're in the process of diluting the training pipeline in order to increase military production without reopening UPT locations (Moody et al). And I say 'we' not because I advocate for the kind of dilutions presently occurring, but merely because pilot production is my wheel house in the USAF and has been for the last 9 years. I have another decade of that to go believe it or not...my "CAF" career was too a casualty of the Lost Decade.

At any rate, to the point of this thread, yes, even that inflection in production won't yield majors-competitive exiting pilots for another decade. But Stop loss won't happen though. AF plays "run the clock offense" very well. The airline hiring pace will trip up with the recession in the 2020s, and that will cover the DOD's bluff, just like it did post vietnam and post Desert Storm I. Mil guys will boomerang like they did in the early 00s.

I still don't think 90% of people out there will make 300K in for 10 years. You can't cherry pick, you gotta include the lost decade folks in with the 26 yo 2014-2020 DL hire outcomes. When you normalize for the sine wave, it's nowhere near 90% on a generational basis. More like 50 or less. ATP shadow inventory stats bear this out clearly.