Old 03-31-2020, 07:09 AM
  #22  
AntiPeter
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Originally Posted by RAHkid94 View Post
Sweden is trying that and managed to get one of the worst fatality rates of any country fighting this now.
I think this is misinformation.

Sweden has approximately the same cumulative fatality rate as Denmark right now. As of writing this, Sweden has 180 fatalities, Denmark has 90. Sweden has approximately double the population of Denmark. Denmark has locked down and shut their society, Sweden has not. They are almost identical nations in terms of wealth, health and genetics so it is about as close to a controlled experiment as medicine can have in the real world.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w

Scientists have moved away from measuring rates of infection because the numbers are producing such bad data (most people infected never get tested). They are now measuring deaths per capita as a more reasonable means of assessing disease behavior and response. Per the article link above:

"Since many countries still lack the capacity for widespread testing, the latest model uses reported COVID-19 deaths to track the spread of the virus instead of infection rates. Given the lag time between infection and mortality, it may take up to several weeks for the full effects of the interventions to be felt, especially in countries that are still in the relatively early stages of their epidemics, such as the UK, according to the report.

The researchers are also careful to note that they cannot attribute the transmission reduction to any particular intervention. And it’s too early to know whether the interventions as a whole are having the intended effect in some European countries. But, “if current trends continue, there is reason for optimism”, they write."


Time will ultimately be the judge of what has been effective and what has been excessive in terms of response. Time will ultimately be the judge if the government and social response has been worth it. At this point in time, the mortality rate in Sweden is very similar to Denmark. Please note Sweden has almost twice the population as Denmark does.

Also, as an aside. The Nordic/Scandinavian nations have had very low death rates. For an example, Iceland has an iFR (infectious fatality rate) of 0.18%. That is similar to a typical flu year, and is atypical of what most other nations are experiencing.

Nordic people are typically more isolated than other countries and aren't nearly as "touchy-feely" as those in Europe whose latitude is further south. Perhaps their culture is more "socially distant" to begin with (my opinion only).

We know that the overwhelming majority of people are not significantly effected by the virus. We also can identify easily those that are high risk and will benefit the best from social isolation. We will potentially put the country into an economic depression yet scientists acknowledge they can not attribute transmission reduction to any particular intervention. That's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see if it pays off.
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