Thread: Flow-Downs
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Old 06-03-2020 | 11:00 AM
  #51  
EDVPLT
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Originally Posted by Rayjay
Wrong. Delta and every legacy will come out of this smaller. Rapid growth is a thing of the past. 7 years for new hires to hit property. The retirements are marginal. If I hear "retirements" or "pilot shortage" again, I might puke up my lunch.
Please explain how I am wrong with numbers if you wanna just put out false claims. You are gonna puke when you hear retirements? Well they are actually happening, not a myth not a subject that can actually be argued it's a real thing. Where did I say Delta would not be smaller? The plan for summer 2021 is ~10,100 active pilots compared to our current ~13,100 pilots, that's smaller. But you seem to just want to ignore the fact that retirements are actually happening, I will agree there is no such thing as "pilot shortage" but retirements are real.

2020: ~300
2021: 696
2022: 780
2023: 757
2024: 770
2025: 703
2026: 596
2027: 504

Total: 5,106

~14,500-5100 = 9,400 = ~8,400 active pilots.

So again, how do we go from summer 2021 active pilot list of ~10,100 to 8,400 by summer 2027 when there will be demand that comes back within that timeframe but even if the demand was summer 2021 levels for 7 years hiring would have to come back assuming 2500 furloughed pilots by 2024 but this assumes 0 growth from summer 2021-2027 which is extremely unlikely.

Let me just walk you through the math to make sure you fully understand cause I know this is hard for you.

2,500 furloughed pilots making senioirty list ~10,100 active pilots in summer 2021. In order to keep ~10,100 active pilots the following needs to happen.

2021: ~300 furloughs recalled
2022: 780 furloughs recalled
2023: 757 furloughs recalled
2024: ~664 furloughs recalled. 106 new hires = 770
2025: 703 new hires....

Who said rapid growth? I know I never did, but anyone would be stupid to think that some type of growth won't happen but yes not like the past in how fast they were previously planning on.

Again please prove to me that I am wrong cause I just proved that I am right.
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