As much as I hate to say it, UPS may be have reached the end of its 3rd hiring cycle. Historically speaking, UPS hires then completely stops for a few years ...
First time they hired HUNDREDS in a year, then paused. In recent times they will hire controllable numbers, and then pause again ...
Factors causing this pause ... age 65, and the retirement of 3 man a/c over the next 5 years. The 747 classic will be gone by this time next year. The DC-8 will EVENTUALLY be phased out through 2013 (subject to business needs, of course).
Won't be the first time I hung out at the bottom of a seniority list for years at the end of a hiring cycle, it just better be the last ! At least in that same historical timeline, UPS has never ACTUALLY furloughed either.
Furlough threats don't count either. Because the time that I actually did get furloughed, there was no prepatory threat from management, it just happened. Lots of other places along the path have used the threat ... FWIW.
All is just my opinion ... YMMV.
Later, Brown CC