Originally Posted by
chrisreedrules
I think the industry will contract by about 40-50% overall. Some airlines will get bigger. Others will shrink massively or perhaps disappear altogether.
Depends entirely on a vaccine now (or some miracle treatment that everyone can keep in their medicine cabinet and pop like aspirin anytime they feel a touch of the Rona coming on).
Otherwise there's no plan and no metric for restoration of normalcy in certain key economic states other than "no deaths"... my guv has essentially stated that one death is too many. No practical way to get there, could literally take decades of partial lockdown to achieve any kind of herd immunity. Or go for total lockdown where anyone leaving their home for for any reason (including food, water, or medical care) is shot on sight, kind of like what they did in wuhan. That would eliminate the bug in a matter of weeks but only in areas where a total lockdown was totally enforced. Chinese citizens are well trained in absolute compliance by decades of gulag therapy, but here you'd have to shoot people.
From a public health management perspective it's basically like telling everyone to stay home because 50,000 annual highway deaths is too much. If traffic deaths start to rise, back to lockdown you go. Rinse, wash, repeat.