The above is nailed. I was at ATP mins and getting ready to apply when this came down. As mentioned, the days of ATP mins being good enough to get hired aren’t going to be back for a good long while. Once the backlog of 121 and military guys clears, there are going to be those guys who just missed getting hired pre-COVID, managed to stay in a CFI job (or a similar ‘time building’ job), and have a few thousand hours racked up. You’ll be competing against them.
The pendulum will eventually swing back to the point where they’ve hired all the high time guys out there, and they still need pilots—that’s when they’ll be back to snagging anyone who is ATP eligible. How long will that be? My uneducated guess would be at least a few years...at LEAST.
I’m walking away—for now, at least. Without divulging too much, I was a non-121 professional aviator for a decade before trying something else for a little bit, thinking the airlines would always be there. I thought wrong. I see the writing on the wall, and it isn’t pretty.
I mentor a couple guys who want to fly professionally. My advice lately has been to avoid the pilot mills. They aren’t too terrible when the job market is good, but you don’t want to crush through your ratings in 3 years, just to be sitting on near six-digit loans with the airlines not yet recovered. I’ve been telling my guys to find another path, preferably one that they enjoy and pays well, and acquire ratings and hours on the side. If things bounce back, they can always bail and take out a loan and finish up. If they don’t, they can proceed slowly, enjoying the flying they’re doing, not racking up a ton of debt.