Originally Posted by
VegasChris
I am sitting at r-atp minimums. I can’t even get a flight instructor job at this point. Class dates are cancelled until further notice. I have learned a valuable lesson- I will definitely not be putting all my eggs in the aviation career basket because I now see how fast all these companies shut down and leave their employees with nothing
I agree that its definitely going to get worse before it gets better- but a decade is a bit a of a stretch to predict.
A few things are going to happen in the fall and winter
1. Possible vaccine ‐ I won't be getting it, but even Fauci thinks they will have something.
2. Election- no matter who wins any political motivations for the shutdown will be gone.
3. Normal people will stop caring about the virus that 99.5% of people survive and go back to living normally including business and leisure travel. The news will have some new big story to sensationalize for profit.
4. Zoom won't replace all international business travel and liesure travel will increase for millennials that have money- because they value experiences over possessions.
Also you only mentioned United. I guess everyone is still waiting for AA, DL, FedEx, and Southwest to say something.
Regional jets are still a desired mode of transportation- even if they don't have a legacy name plastered on the side. Look at how successful JSX was until the pandemic.
Airforce is going to still need pilots and last I checked they were still offering retention money. Also isn't there a huge shortage from the last recession where they weren't training pilots?
Its bad, but not bad for a decade bad. I expect the bottom to come this winter and to be in training at a regional before 2022 is over with my current qualifications and minimal flying to stay current while I continue to work my regular local government job
CORONAVIRUSPublished July 28
Spirit Airlines says 20% to 30% of workers at risk of furloughs
Workers at risk of being furloughed include pilots and flight attendants
AIRLINESDelta CEO sends staff memo thanking 17,000 employees for leaving, says it gets airline closer to ‘minimizing furloughs’
PUBLISHED THU, JUL 30 202011:27 AM EDTUPDATED THU, JUL 30 20203:23 PM EDT
I wish you all the luck in the world, but the effect of this year’s decreased flying on the allowed scope for most regionals will not even start until March 2021. At that point there will be ADDITIONAL regional furloughs and/or closures putting more guys with 121 experience on the street. Reportedly, GOJET just sent WARN letters to everyone including management which means that Hulas May have decided to get out of the regional business altogether. Which, if true, puts ANOTHER 600 highly qualified and experienced 121 pilots on the street.
As for JSX, I have a friend there who thinks it’s an OK place to work, but it’s got a grand total of 135 pilots. Four JSXs wouldn’t offset the closing of GOJET alone. And as I said, for the regionals it is likely to get worse before it gets better because scope will be decreasing as mainline flying decreases. For damn sure, the major airline unions are not going to give scope relief - not with their own members furloughed. So barring major airlines going into bankruptcy (which might happen) and the bankruptcy judge voiding existing scope provisions (possible but unlikely), regionals are going to be getting smaller. That may provide opportunities for 135 operations - like JSX - but there will be heavy competition even for those jobs.
As for your other assumptions about this fall and winter, I don’t even disagree, but you overlook the economic issue.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...t-quarter-ever
The GDP just took an annualized 33% hit. That is huge. It’s unprecedented. And it doesn’t really matter if COVID 19 did it to us or if we did it to ourselves by overreacting to COVID 19, the damage is done and it will take the country some time to recover.