Thread: Check My Math
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Old 09-19-2020, 07:05 AM
  #4  
Excargodog
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The risk jump in relative terms attributable to COVID is surprisingly low, but the risk jump in ABSOLUTE terms is huge.

Take these figures from the UK (first ones I found when I searched) on all cause mortality:




an 85 year old male has an annual one chance in six (~17%) of dropping off the twig without coronavirus while a 5-14 year old has roughly one chance in 9000 (.011%). Increasing each number by a similar percentage results in a LOT more senior deaths of senior citizens than it does youngsters. And for special cases such as those living in nursing homes and long term care facilities, the annual deathrate is already 35% without COVID.

In absolute terms, the young and the old have hugely different risk.
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