Originally Posted by
RiddleEagle18
5 confirmed reinfection cases IN THE ENTIRE WORLD!
We don’t actually know if reinfection will be common. So far it seems that it isn’t common at all.
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There are four human coronaviruses that merely cause colds that have been with us for a long time.
Common human coronaviruses
- 229E (alpha coronavirus)
- NL63 (alpha coronavirus)
- OC43 (beta coronavirus)
- HKU1 (beta coronavirus)
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html
https://jcm.asm.org/content/48/8/2940
These have been extensively studied. Typically, it takes at least six months for immunity to fade enough for someone to get a second infection with any of these coronaviruses.
In a few cases, reinfections occurred as early as 6 months (twice with HCoV-229E and once with HCoV-OC43) and 9 months (once with HCoV-NL63), but reinfections were frequently observed at 12 months (Fig. 1b). For reinfections occurring as early as 6 months, we observed no intermediate reduction in antibodies between infections (Fig. 1b, white circles), but reinfection intervals of more than 6 months did show intermediate reductions between infections (visible as peaks in Fig. 1aand Supplementary Fig. 1). The ability to detect short-term reinfections in this study was limited by the sampling interval, which was, at minimum, 3 months. However, no signs of reinfection were observed at the first subsequent follow-up visit after a 3-month interval (Fig. 1b), as only decreases in antibody levels (optical density (OD) fold changes <1.0) were found (Fig. 1c). We, therefore, concluded that, in our data, the earliest time point for reinfection by seasonal coronaviruses was 6 months.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1083-1
Since the first known case of COVID-19 in the world was in November, and the numbers really didn’t start to skyrocket until April, nobody really expected to see all that many...yet.