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Old 11-15-2020, 02:49 PM
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Excargodog
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Originally Posted by 187Breezy View Post
Since it has come up- I hear a lot about how I'll be competing against all the more-qualified furloughed folks, but I wonder how big of a factor this really will be. If I'm furloughed from regional X with say 2 years on, then go to apply at regional Y, won't Y just figure I'll go back to X as soon as they call? Why would they hire someone like that? Or, if they require you to outright quit your prior regional, how many furloughees will want to do that, since once Y is hiring off the street, X is likely recalling or close to it.

This obviously doesn't apply to folks who are completely out in the cold (Express Jet for example) but I wonder how much the furlough situation will impact hiring once it starts again.

I don't know this industry as an insider, just a many-decades outside observer, but I wonder about these things.
For starters, three regionals have disappeared altogether and if one or two more don’t go before this gets done, I’d be greatly surprised.

And fleet reductions at some of the legacies may well compel reductions at some of their affiliated regionals, just to meet scope agreements.

Then you are going to have some other career speed bumps. A lot of the senior people at regionals who weren’t furloughed will have graduated to a situation where their going to the majors just doesn’t make sense, they’d have to start all over at the bottom of a seniority list while not making all that much more than what they have at the regional with far less seniority based scheduling clout. They basically have become immobile, sitting in those regional slots until retirement.

In the meantime, 1000 pilots a year who could have been getting out of the military but instead have been waiting for this COVID to be over will all be getting out, probably 2500 or so of them.

Some - those current - will go directly to the majors or nearly so. The others will be going to the regionals for probably a year of ‘touch and go’ to get current before they go to the majors, leaving their fellows at the regional behind. Except of course by that time another 1000 military aviators will have worked off their ADSCs too.

Basically there are just too many pilots too far more qualified than you for this to resolve quickly given reduced airline sizes.

Sorry, but if that’s not the reality it will be damn close to it,

Last edited by Excargodog; 11-15-2020 at 03:18 PM.
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