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Old 01-15-2021, 10:30 AM   #393  
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Joined APC: Dec 2017
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Originally Posted by sailingfun View Post
Final mortality data for this year will not be available for months. But preliminary numbers suggest that the United States is on track to see more than 3.2 million deaths this year, or at least 400,000 more than in 2019.

U.S. deaths increase most years, so some annual rise in fatalities is expected. But the 2020 numbers amount to a jump of about 15%, and could go higher once all the deaths from this month are counted. That would mark the largest single-year percentage leap since 1918, when tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers died in World War I and hundreds of thousands of Americans died in a flu pandemic. Deaths rose 46% that year, compared with 1917.
THe argument goes a little something like this. If 94% of deaths are co-morbidities, and if the covid vaccine works, and all things being equal, the extra 400,000 lives would leave a hole in later data. So 2.8 million year before, 3.2 this last year, 3.0 next year, 2.6 after that, 2.6 after that going back to 2.8 slowly.

You're not going to have the answers you want, that some have already committed to, until years from now.
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