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Old 02-22-2021, 07:15 AM
  #20  
rickair7777
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Originally Posted by CL300 View Post
I’m sure they did. But going from three to two is much different than two to one (or zero).

I watched a major biz jet manufacturer recertify an airplane from an existing model into a new and improved model, they changed wings and engines, and it took them seven years to get it approved. That was a model they were already producing. It was a fairly simple change and it took years.

To get a single pilot airplane certified, all the important switches need to be within reach of the guy flying the machine. As it stands right now, those switches are scattered all over the panel and overhead. Boeing and Airbus would (probably) gladly do the research and development to move all these switches and make them accessible to the one pilot, but A. there’s no room to fit them all within reach, and B. It’ll cost millions and millions to research it, develop it and certify it. Who is supposed to pay for all that development? The airlines buying the plane. The manufacturers will have to add millions of dollars to the price of each copy to get a return on their legwork.

I don’t know where you work, but I guarantee my employer won’t pay one extra nickel more than necessary to buy another airframe, let alone a few million more per plane. They’ll gladly continue paying us hundreds of dollars to continue operating the airframes we already own. It doesn’t make any sense. But then again, we get our flight releases on dot matrix paper, so that confirms the frugality.

That doesn’t even include the billions it would cost to upgrade the technology to pull off single pilot or autonomous aircraft operations. We don’t have autonomous trains or ships, and they’re single and dual axis controlled, making them much easier to operate remotely. Once that technology is in place and deemed hack-proof, only then will I even consider worrying about single pilot operations in large airliners. And I still stand behind the statement I won’t see it in my career (20+ years to 65).
This is another reason it won't happen soon... airline managers are interested only in next quarter's earning report, they're quite simply not in the business of making vast investments today with an expected ROI in 20-30 years.

The airframers will have to foot the bill alone, and it will be incremental... they'll slowly add the tech to new models so they can collect the data over many years.

At some point there may be a computer onboard which is virtually "flying" the plane as a shadow pilot to generate and record data for comparison.
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