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Old 04-19-2021, 11:27 AM
  #237  
Hedley
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Joined APC: Aug 2020
Posts: 2,206
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Originally Posted by GA2Jets View Post
Counter point: the number of 50 seaters today speaks to the market that exists right now. There are some airports that have phased out service, but there are tons of small cities that United makes a profit off of. UA makes a lot of money off small markets, and while some might go, no way they're giving up on them all. So they either they have to upgauge and reduce frequency, or find another small aircraft solution.
I think that the vast majority of lift currently being done by 50 seaters will be replaced with reduced frequency on the 175’s. A handful of really small markets could be dropped as well. My commute for example had 6-9 E175’s depending on the day before the pandemic that could be served with fewer flights on 737/320’s. That would free up big rj’s to cover much of what the 50 seat fleet does now. Some of what that fleet does is serve extremely small markets like BFE Kansas, however a bunch of what they do is add frequency. I’m still betting that in 5 years UAX will consist of about 70 or so 550’s to cover the really small markets and the existing 175’s. I don’t see Kirby freeing up additional 175’s by buying a new SNB, and I don’t see there being enough global demand to spawn a new 50 seat aircraft in time to save aging 145’s and 200’s. That basically leaves competing against a better product with old 50 seaters, or bigger planes and reduced frequency. Kirby knows that he isn’t getting scope concessions, he just doesn't like his available options.
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