Originally Posted by
fcoolaiddrinker
You forgot the other black swan event with the housing collapse, 6 legacies consolidated into 3 and basically everyone in bankruptcy at some point along the way.
1. The housing collapse (liar loans, Fannie Mae, mark to market) resulted in a recession (included in the likelihood of a one to two year recession, above). That impacts number of passengers. But it was not a lost decade.
2. Consolidation of legacies did not have a major impact on number of passengers, although it did increase load factors. Do you anticipate more consolidation of the legacies? I do not. Buy outs of LCC or consolidations of LCC are possible. But they will not have an impact on overall number of passengers. All flights have been running pretty full, pre Covid. So, not much of an opportunity to consolidate the number of flights in the majors, taken as a whole.
3. Everyone going through bankruptcy had an impact on wages. It did not have a major impact on the number of passengers.
It is number of passengers and number of flights that impact the number of pilots. That was the subject of this.