After seeing how the last displacement worked out for them, I’m guessing they first try to shrink the 190 pilot footprints naturally (allowing bid outs, but smaller total targets on each effective date, not backfilling all the bid outs). As the 220 vacancies grow, there will no doubt be plenty in both seats in BOS to switch, and plenty 190 guys in JFK in both seats switching to various other planes/bases. MCO would maybe see a little natural attrition too.

The one thing with the MCO 190 base is they seem to get used for a lot of clean up. I’ve seen MCO reserves and VDAs go rescue broken 190 pairings in places like JAX and TPA, and are fairly easily sent up to places like HPN/LGA/JFK/BOS when those run out of reserves. So, if they shut that down first, they lose that capability. I wouldn’t be surprised if they left the MCO190 base until the bulk of the Florida flying is covered with 220/320s, and 190 flying is relegated to the northeast only. B6 should have almost 40 220s by the end of next year and 66 by end of 2024, and at least 6 fewer 190s by end of next year. I’d say sometime in 2023-2024 most of the Florida flying will be 220/320s and they’ll have to run a displacement bid to close MCO190 around then. They can get away with not displacing in JFK/BOS for a while I would think, but the ripple effects of displacing in MCO could be far reaching, especially if the total number of MCO pilots shrinks with the MCO190 spots going away. But, the one difference with this eventual 190 displacement bid and the LGB displacement bid is for the LGB one, there weren’t any vacancies added anywhere else. If they do it when there are a ton of vacancies in various seats/bases, the effects may not be so bad.