Originally Posted by
chihuahua
This is what remains to be seen, I think. We haven't gotten to the Build Back Better food prices quite yet. Fall will tell the story of if people will continue to be able to afford travel or not. The last of the covid savings/stimulous are being spent this summer. Layoffs in other industries have already started, and last I read Q2 will also show a decline in GDP meaning we are officially in a recession already. We'll find out by January how much of a pilot shortage there is. At least it might give training a chance to catch up. If they get what they're hoping for like you said, we'll be in for another lost decade.
The lost decade had a massive amount of surplus military pilots, not anymore. The number of civilian pilots trained today are significantly less than just prior to 2001. The internet was a dirt road then. Through media we have effectively driven more talented prospective students to other careers. This recession needs to be a depression on an apocalyptic scale to have the surplus of pilots, that dirt bag airline managements love to prey on.
Nuclear saturation of western Europe is what management needs and prays for. Anything short of that won’t move the needle as it relates to the shortage of pilots.